Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Not Dead—Benjamin Cowen Insists on New BTC Local Low
Bitcoin is still following its historical four-year cycle, according to Into The Cryptoverse founder and CEO Benjamin Cowen.
The analyst has remained unperturbed by the recent Bitcoin price resurgence, which saw it reclaim a multi-month high of $82,800. In a recent X post, Cowen insisted that $BTC is still following its long-standing cyclical pattern, citing several metrics to back his claims.
Key Points
Bitcoin is still following its historical four-year cycle, according to Into The Cryptoverse founder and CEO Benjamin Cowen.
He argued that if $BTC followed this trend at its peak, why would its bottom be any different?
The countertrend rally to $82,800 peaked at the 200-day SMA in early May, a pattern he highlighted as recurring.
In an earlier analysis, Cowen predicted that the next leg down could begin this month and extend to June.
Bitcoin Bottom Not In
Cowen noted that Bitcoin ($BTC) topped out accurately, in line with historical cycles. Its peak of $126,200 in October 2025 fell within one of its cycle timeframes, measured from low to high.
He argued that if $BTC followed this trend at its peak, why would its bottom be any different? Past bear markets have ended in the receding months of the midterm year, as seen in November 2022 and December 2018. Citing this, the analyst insisted that the crypto leader has not bottomed yet, maintaining his earlier year-end prediction.
Another metric he believes is following prior behaviors is the Bitcoin market cycle peak and the Bitcoin market cycle bottom return on investment (ROI) chart. For the uninitiated, the former measures the multiple from the previous bull market peak to the bear market low. Meanwhile, the latter measures the multiplier from the bear market lows and the next bull market peak.
The bottom ROI is closely following earlier cycles despite not reaching their multiplier highs due to $BTC’s milder gains. Cowen further highlighted that while $BTC ROI from the peak is holding up better than previous cycles, it is still exhibiting a similar behavior.
Bitcoin Market Cycle Peak ROI/Benjamin Cowen
Recent Bitcoin Rally Faces Similar Obstacle
Interestingly, the analyst views the recent price resurgence as a confirmation of his theory. The countertrend rally to $82,800 peaked at the 200-day SMA in early May, a pattern he highlighted as recurring. An accompanying chart shows that a similar rejection occurred in 2018 and 2022, and it preceded the last leg down.
Bitcoin Rejection at 200D SMA/Benjamin Cowen
He also noted that some countertrends have outlasted others over the years. There were some that played out in over 20 weeks, higher than the current 16-week span. This countered claims that the recent consolidation has been prolonged and, hence, suggested prices have bottomed.
Citing this “plenty of evidence,” Cowen insisted that the four-year cycle is intact. On the timeline, he expects Bitcoin to continue its bearish trend until the latter part of the year, as with past cycles.
When the Next Bitcoin Leg Down Will Begin
In an earlier analysis, Cowen predicted that the next leg down could begin this month and extend to June. He expects the next bearish phase to push Bitcoin below the February 6 bottom of $60,000 to much lower prices. Notably, several market analysts have called that level the cycle’s bottom, contrary to Cowen’s view.
Another analyst, Sykodelic, also shares a different view. Rather than another leg down, he predicted that Bitcoin would rally in June to above $90,000 after retesting its BOS.