Crypto Expert Warns: Current Gains Are Merely a Bounce, the Real Bitcoin Uptrend Has Yet to Begin

Axel Adler Jr., an analyst at the cryptocurrency analytics company CryptoQuant, said that the recent rise in Bitcoin may be a recovery that is more of a correction after a sharp decline, rather than the beginning of a new bull market.

Adler Jr., in his analysis, stated that while Bitcoin experienced a market recovery after falling from $125,000 to $60,000, many key indicators have not yet reached historical bear market lows. According to the analyst, the position structure of long-term investors (LTH) still does not point to a typical bottom accumulation pattern. Furthermore, he noted that a full-blown spot sell-off and panic buying process has not yet been observed in the market.

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Adler Jr. noted that the macroeconomic outlook was also putting pressure on risky assets, pointing out that the US consumer confidence index had fallen to a record low of 48.2. He also highlighted that Brent oil prices hovering around $100 were increasing inflation concerns. The rise of US 10-year Treasury yields back above 4.5% was also cited as a factor suppressing risk appetite in the markets.

The report also stated that interest rate markets are no longer pricing in rapid rate cuts by the Fed, and are even beginning to consider the possibility of future rate hikes. In this context, Adler Jr. stated that he maintains a cautious approach towards the market, noting that sufficient on-chain structural confirmation has not yet been established on the Bitcoin side, spot demand has not stabilized, and supply-side pressures have not fully eased.

*This is not investment advice.