Cryptocurrency market sees Bitcoin revisit five-figure milestone, yet investor caution prevails amid skepticism over sustained upward momentum.

As Asian markets kick off the trading week, Bitcoin has surged past the $80,000 threshold, a milestone last achieved in late January. According to CryptoQuant analysts, this rebound is fueled by cautious buyers, as evidenced by positioning data and on-chain indicators. While exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and leveraged long positions have been driving the recent uptrend, the underlying demand landscape appears inconsistent. Over the past three weeks, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted approximately $2.7 billion, boosting total net assets to over $100 billion and providing tangible support from genuine investors.

Meanwhile, a recent Telegram update from market maker FlowDesk revealed a growing inclination towards scaling up leveraged long positions, particularly in prominent cryptocurrencies such as Ether (ETH) and NEAR, a token affiliated with the Near Protocol. This trend suggests that speculative investments are playing a significant role in propelling prices upward. However, an analysis of on-chain data presents a more nuanced picture. A CryptoQuant report released on April 30 indicates that the April price surge was solely driven by increased demand for perpetual futures, while spot demand continued to contract throughout the rally.

Historically, such disparities between expanding leverage and stagnant underlying buying have been associated with precarious price gains that tend to dissipate once market positioning is unwound. The outlook from prediction markets echoes this sentiment, with Polymarket traders assigning a 56% probability to Bitcoin reaching $85,000 this month, but only a 23% chance of hitting $90,000. This implies that market expectations are tilted towards a gradual, incremental increase rather than a sharp breakout. Collectively, these signals suggest that the current rally is being sustained by inflows and leverage, but lacks widespread conviction, rendering it vulnerable to any slowdown in inflows or shift in market positioning – conditions that have previously led to abrupt reversals rather than sustained advances.