Cryptocurrency's leading coin hits a roadblock at a crucial hurdle, sparking divided predictions among experts.
The crypto market remains pinned just below its early-February ceiling, with bitcoin hovering at $71,200 and ether ($ETH) trading at $2,185. The sideways crawl comes despite a risk-on boost from the recent US-Iran ceasefire, leaving analysts sharply divided on the next leg.
Bloomberg's Mike McGlone said this week that $BTC needs to reclaim $75,000 or risk a meltdown to $10,000. Fundstrat Tom Lee has taken a contrasting view, claiming that the "bottom is in" on Wednesday, although it's worth noting that his fund holds $10.4 billion worth of $ETH.
$BTC is up by around 0.3% since midnight UTC while $ETH is flat having outperformed the broader market on Wednesday, and while $BTC has posted a modest gain, all eyes remain on whether this range-bound stability is a launchpad or a trap.
Derivatives positioning
Bitcoin's futures open interest (OI) has increased to 726,000 $BTC, a one-week high, bouncing sharply from 693,000 $BTC over the weekend. The tally has increased by over 1% in the past 24 hours, a sign of continued capital inflows despite spot price's stalled ascent.
$BTC's 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) remains positive for the second straight day and perpetual funding rates hover just above zero. These datasets, coupled with OI increase, suggests a persistent bias for bullish plays.
OI in ether, XRP and solana futures has also increased by 1% to 2%. However, CVD and funding rates for these tokens are slightly negative, which suggests growing demand for bearish bets.
CVD readings for top meme coins like DOGE and SHIB remain negative – a signal some see as constructive for the broader market, as heavy bullish positioning in speculative tokens is often viewed as a sign of excess froth.
Bitcoin and ether volatility indices continue to decline in a sign of market calm. 10x Research said the market is pricing just 2.5% swing in either direction on the back of Friday's inflation data.
On Deribit, $BTC and $ETH continue to show a mild bias for put options, which offer downside protection, although its much weaker than a week ago. Speaking of flows, the $80,000 bitcoin call has seen the biggest increase in number of open positions in the past 24 hours followed by the $82,000 call.
Token talk
The altcoin market continued to impress on Thursday with the likes of $MANA and AERO rising by 6% apiece, while decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens MORPHO and PENDLE rose by 3.7% and 2.7% respectively since midnight UTC.
It's worth noting that $MANA's move comes alongside a 25% increase in open interest, suggesting the move was backed by leverage as opposed to spot buying.
The CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS) and CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Select Capped Index (SCPXC) were the best performing benchmarks on Thursday, posting gains between 0.4% and 0.5% while the broader CoinDesk 100 (CD100) is unchanged.
Traders will be keeping a close on on whether bitcoin can break above $75,000 and establish a level of support, which would likely lead to a period of capital rotation into altcoins, many of which are still oversold following a selloff in February and subsequent period of consolidation.