USDC Beats USDT in Transaction Volume — Biggest Stablecoin Shift Since 2019
For the first time since 2019, Circle's USDC has overtaken Tether's USDT
in adjusted transaction volume — marking a historic reversal in the $315 billion
stablecoin market. According to a March 13 research note from
Mizuho Securities, USDC now holds 64% of combined adjusted
stablecoin volume in 2026, ending a six-year streak of USDT dominance.
The Numbers: USDC vs USDT in 2026
| Metric | USDC (Circle) | USDT (Tether) |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted Transaction Volume (YTD 2026) | $2.2 Trillion | $1.3 Trillion |
| Volume Market Share | 64% | 36% |
| Market Capitalization | ~$79 Billion | ~$184 Billion |
| Issuer | Circle (US-based, NYSE listed) | Tether (British Virgin Islands) |
| Last Time USDC Led Volume | 2019 — 7 years ago |
Why Is USDC Winning in Volume?
The key difference between both stablecoins comes down to their reserve structure.
USDC, issued by Circle, backs its supply primarily with short-term US Treasury bonds
and regulated financial institutions — a model that aligns directly with traditional
financial standards. This has made USDC the preferred choice for:
- 🏦 Institutional settlement — banks and funds prefer regulated collateral
- 📊 Prediction markets — Polymarket and similar platforms run primarily on USDC
- 🤖 Agentic commerce — AI agents transacting autonomously use USDC as default
- 💳 Real-world payments — B2B supplier payments and cross-border transfers
- 🔗 DeFi protocols — Lido, Aave, and major platforms favor USDC liquidity
What Is "Adjusted Volume" — Why It Matters
Mizuho defined "adjusted volume" as transfers involving centralized exchanges,
decentralized exchanges, and other labeled entities — transfers that look like a real
person or institution actually moving money — such as companies paying
suppliers, users placing bets on prediction markets, and funds moving between a
centralized exchange and a DeFi protocol. This metric removes internal bot transfers
and automated wash trading, giving a cleaner picture of genuine economic activity.
Mizuho Raises Circle (CRCL) Price Target to $120
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Previous Price Target | $100 |
| New Price Target | $120 |
| Rating | Neutral (maintained) |
| Reason | USDC volume leadership + institutional adoption + agentic commerce growth |
| Circle IPO | NYSE listed June 2025 |
USDT Still Leads in Market Cap — But Does It Matter?
Mizuho analysts said that longer term, the stablecoin winner will be
the one mostly used in everyday economic activity, rather than just the highest
market cap. Despite USDT's commanding $184B market cap vs USDC's $79B,
transaction volume tells a different story. Circle has
positioned USDC as a regulated, dollar-backed stablecoin aimed at both crypto
trading and traditional financial infrastructure.
| Battleground | Winner | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | 🟡 USDT ($184B) | Larger supply, crypto-native dominance |
| Transaction Volume | 🟢 USDC (64% share) | Real-world payments, institutions |
| Regulation Compliance | 🟢 USDC | US-based, audited reserves |
| DeFi / Crypto Trading | 🟡 USDT | Longer history, deeper liquidity |
| Institutional Payments | 🟢 USDC | Treasury-backed, NYSE-listed issuer |
Regulatory Uncertainty: CLARITY Act Stalled
The CLARITY Act, which passed the US House of Representatives,
is currently stalled in the Senate due to disagreements over stablecoin yields,
ethics rules, and the treatment of tokenized securities. Until federal
stablecoin regulation is finalized, USDC's US-based regulatory advantage over
Tether's offshore structure may continue to drive institutional preference.
FAQ — USDC vs USDT 2026
Has USDC overtaken USDT?
Yes — in transaction volume. USDC has
processed roughly $2.2 trillion in transaction volume in 2026, surpassing USDT's
$1.3 trillion and capturing about 64% of adjusted stablecoin transaction share.
Which stablecoin has the higher market cap?
USDT still leads with ~$184B vs USDC's ~$79B market cap. The volume lead belongs to USDC, not the supply lead.
Why did Mizuho raise Circle's price target?
Mizuho raised Circle's price target to $120 primarily due to USDC's
increased trading volume surpassing USDT, growing institutional adoption, and the
stablecoin's demonstrated resilience during market volatility.
Is USDC safer than USDT?
USDC is backed by US Treasuries and issued by a NYSE-listed US company. USDT is
issued by Tether from the British Virgin Islands. Regulatory clarity favors USDC —
but both carry counterparty risk.