Qualcomm (QCOM) Extends Rally to Nine Days — Is the Bottom In?

Table of Contents Qualcomm (QCOM) shares have posted gains for nine consecutive trading sessions — the company’s longest winning run since November 2023 — adding roughly 11% during this period. Yet when you zoom out, the broader picture remains challenging. The chipmaker’s shares are still down approximately 20% for 2026, and earlier this month they hit their lowest level since 2023. QUALCOMM Incorporated, QCOM The 25% decline during Q1 2026 marked Qualcomm’s steepest quarterly loss since 2002. This historical context suggests the recent rally may be more of a technical rebound than a fundamental reversal. The primary challenge facing the company stems from memory chip availability. Explosive demand for DRAM components driven by AI infrastructure expansion has left consumer electronics manufacturers facing supply shortages and elevated pricing. A spot price benchmark for DRAM has surged nearly 500% since late August. This dynamic creates significant obstacles for Qualcomm, whose business depends heavily on smartphone manufacturers. “The reality is that memory supply constraints present a genuine near-term obstacle,” noted Ethan Feller, a stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research. “The growth trajectory for this year and next appears quite challenging.” Qualcomm has faced at least eight analyst downgrades throughout 2026. Among the 45 analysts tracking the stock, just 17 maintain buy recommendations while three have assigned sell ratings — representing the weakest analyst consensus in at least 16 years. This stands in sharp contrast to semiconductor peers like Nvidia, Broadcom, and Micron, where more than 90% of analysts maintain bullish ratings. Both JPMorgan and BNP Paribas downgraded QCOM shares last week. BNP analysts stated that elevated memory pricing “is likely going to remain a headwind” through the first half of next year and noted they “see no relief for QCOM in the short to medium term.” Earnings projections have also moved lower. Analysts currently forecast EPS of $2.57 for the upcoming quarter — representing a 9.8% year-over-year decline. Full fiscal year revenue estimates stand at $43.39 billion, reflecting a 1.7% decrease. Zacks currently assigns the stock its lowest rating of #5 Strong Sell. CEO Cristiano Amon has worked to reposition Qualcomm beyond its smartphone chip heritage, expanding into automotive, personal computing, and data center markets. However, these emerging revenue streams haven’t yet reached the scale needed to compensate for softness in the handset business, particularly as Apple continues reducing its reliance on Qualcomm modem technology in iPhones. Shares have declined approximately 40% from their June 2024 all-time high. The stock currently trades at roughly 12 times forward earnings estimates — below its 10-year historical average of approximately 15 times. For comparison, the broader semiconductor sector trades at around 22 times forward earnings. Despite the challenges, some market participants see opportunity at current valuations. “The market has thrown considerable headwinds at Qualcomm, yet the company has continued to execute reasonably well under difficult conditions,” said Steve Bruce of Bruce Wood Capital. “From a longer-term perspective, it appears attractive.” Qualcomm is scheduled to report Q2 financial results on April 29. Following its February earnings announcement, shares declined 8.5% after management provided guidance below Wall Street expectations.