Turbulent Times Fuel Bitcoin's Rise to the Top, Outpacing Traditional Investment Giants
A recent study by Mercado Bitcoin, a prominent Brazilian cryptocurrency platform, has shed light on Bitcoin's impressive performance in the face of global disruptions. Led by Research Director Rony Szuster, the analysis examined the 60-day periods following significant economic and geopolitical events, including the COVID-19 pandemic and US trade policy escalations. The data reveals that Bitcoin consistently outperforms gold and the S&P 500 index during these tumultuous periods. For instance, in the 60 days following the Trump administration's comprehensive tariff rollout in April 2025, Bitcoin's value surged by 24%, while gold rose by 8% and the S&P 500 index increased by a mere 4%. A similar pattern emerged during the COVID-19 crisis in March 2020, with Bitcoin gaining 21% and outpacing both gold and the S&P 500.
However, Szuster warns against making hasty judgments about Bitcoin's performance during crises, emphasizing that market participants often liquidate their assets rapidly to secure liquidity, which can temporarily impact even traditionally stable assets. This trend appears to be repeating itself in the current US-Iran confrontation, with Bitcoin experiencing a 2.2% appreciation, from approximately $65,800 to $67,300, while gold has declined by around 11% and the S&P 500 has retreated by 4.4%, marking its steepest monthly decline since 2022.
Despite its characteristic volatility, Bitcoin has emerged as the top-performing asset over the past decade, according to Szuster. Meanwhile, ETF specialist James Seyffart predicts that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds will eventually surpass gold ETFs in terms of aggregate assets under management, citing Bitcoin's multiple functions, including its status as digital gold, value preservation, portfolio diversification tool, and growth-oriented investment. Seyffart's view is supported by current investment flow patterns, with US-based gold ETFs experiencing net redemptions of $2.92 billion in March, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs registered net contributions of $1.32 billion.
Interestingly, the premier US gold ETF witnessed a single-day outflow of $3 billion on March 4, representing the largest daily redemption in over two years. Despite this, both asset classes have declined over the past 30 days, with Bitcoin retreating by approximately 8% and gold falling by around 8.25%. This parallel price movement, despite divergent ETF activity, is consistent with the historical pattern observed by Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Chris Kuiper in December 2025, which suggests that gold and Bitcoin have alternately taken the lead in terms of relative performance.