Polymarket — the prediction‑market platform—has seen U.S. wallets place $571 million in notional value on its political markets over the last 12 months, making American participants the largest national crowd despite the service’s geo‑restriction.
U.S. Activity Surpasses All Other Nations
Allium, an on‑chain analytics firm, reported that American wallets generated $571 million in notional trades, outpacing Hong Kong’s $422 million and any other country’s contribution. The data reflects a full‑year snapshot of political‑market activity, highlighting the dominance of U.S. investors on the platform.
How the Block Is Bypassed
Polymarket restricts U.S. access by filtering IP addresses, yet the platform’s reliance on crypto wallets and stablecoins eliminates traditional banking checkpoints. Users can employ a VPN to disguise their location, then connect an existing crypto wallet, allowing them to sidestep the IP block without triggering regulatory safeguards.
Allium derives country tags from on‑chain transaction patterns rather than IP data, meaning that a VPN’s concealment does not obscure a wallet’s true origin. Consequently, the firm can confidently associate roughly 6 % of political‑market wallets with a specific nation, treating the remaining data as indicative rather than exact.
Market Composition and Investor Focus
Within the U.S. segment, geopolitics accounted for 46 % of notional value, compared with 36 % across the entire platform, while election‑related bets comprised 16 % of U.S. activity versus 32 % globally. This distribution suggests American investors are more inclined toward geopolitical outcomes than electoral events on Polymarket’s blockchain‑based market.