Benjamin Cowen’s latest market report warns that Bitcoin (BTC) is still outside a safe buying zone and that bearish pressures dominate the current price action.
Cycle Assessment
Cowen notes that Bitcoin fell nearly 50 % from its all‑time high of about $68,800 in November 2021 and has since traded sideways, a pattern he labels “capitulation spread over time.” He argues that the market peaked without strong enthusiasm, leaving investors disengaged and preventing the usual surge in altcoin performance.
Macro Liquidity Constraints
The analyst attributes the ongoing contraction to tighter global liquidity, pointing to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s persistently high interest‑rate stance as a key factor. He dismisses hype around institutional ETF inflows or sovereign Bitcoin holdings, emphasizing that price movements are driven by macro‑level cash flows rather than headline news.
Outlook for the Bottom
Sticking to his four‑year Bitcoin cycle model, Cowen projects that the true market bottom could emerge in the fourth quarter of 2026 if liquidity conditions improve. He advises investors to monitor macro