Jiang Zhuoer, a leading figure in China’s Bitcoin mining sector, announced that Bitcoin’s bear‑market floor could settle between October and December 2026, with a projected price range of $42,000 to $44,000.
Analytical Framework
The forecast relies on Strategy’s market net asset value (mNAV) metric, which compares the equity valuation of the mining company to the underlying Bitcoin value per share. When mNAV exceeds 1.0, the market places a premium on the stock; a reading below 1.0 signals that investors are valuing the firm less than its Bitcoin holdings.
Recent mNAV Trends
Jiang highlighted that Strategy’s mNAV recently slipped to 0.72, echoing the 0.70 level recorded on May 11 2022—a date that marked the onset of the previous major market transition. During that 2022 bear market, the mNAV bottomed out while Bitcoin traded around $31,017, indicating a stark shift in investor sentiment.
Implications for Crypto Investors
If the current mNAV trajectory persists, investors may anticipate a modest recovery for Bitcoin by late 2026, aligning with the $42,000‑$44,000 floor range. Such a scenario could reshape expectations across the blockchain ecosystem, prompting renewed interest in crypto assets as market conditions stabilize.