Bank of America’s June fund‑manager survey reveals that 40 % of investors now expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates at least once within the next 12 months, up sharply from 16 % in May, while hopes for cuts slipped to 28 % from 50 %.
Federal Reserve Outlook
The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting scheduled for June 17 is projected to keep the policy rate unchanged. CME FedWatch data places the probability of a hold between 99.4 % and 99.6 %.
This session marks the first under Kevin Warsh, who was appointed by President Donald Trump. Warsh inherits a landscape where stubborn inflation has stalled any momentum toward easing.
A CNBC poll of 32 financial professionals—including economists, strategists, and investment managers—shows unanimous confidence that rates will stay steady at the meeting and remain unchanged through 2027.
Investor Sentiment and Market Reaction
Despite the consensus among experts, market pricing tells a different story. Kalshi’s prediction market assigns a 64 % chance that the Fed will implement at least one rate hike before July 2027, a notable rise from earlier forecasts this year.
Crypto investors monitor these signals closely, as Bitcoin’s price often reacts to monetary‑policy expectations. A stable rate outlook tends to support a steadier blockchain market, while any hint of tightening can pressure crypto valuations.