Polymarket's crypto prediction market recorded the Clarity Act's likelihood of becoming law at just 32% for passage by December 31 2026, marking the lowest confidence level since the market opened on January 11.
Recent Shifts in Market Sentiment
Traders had once assigned an 82% probability to the bill on February 19, but the figure has eroded by roughly 30 percentage points as the Senate's calendar tightened in early May. The decline reflects growing investor doubt that Congress will finalize the landmark crypto market‑structure legislation before the end of 2025.
Political Roadblocks
Negotiations continue behind closed doors, with an updated draft expected to surface next week yet still lacking Democratic endorsement. President Donald Trump met Senate Republicans yesterday to discuss the proposal, but the absence of a bipartisan ethics clause remains a critical sticking point.
Senator Ruben Gallego (D‑AZ), one of only two Democrats who advanced the measure out of the Senate Banking Committee, has sign