Robinhood’s prediction‑market division is slated to generate $586 million in revenue by 2026, according to a new forecast released by Bernstein.
Revenue Projections
Bernstein’s analysis lifts the 2025 estimate from $150 million to $586 million for 2026, reflecting a rapid acceleration in the platform’s transaction‑based earnings. The firm predicts that prediction‑market activity will account for roughly 17 % of Robinhood’s transaction revenue and 10 % of its total income in 2026. These figures place the segment among the fastest‑growing crypto‑related product lines since its debut.
Growth Drivers
Daily trading volumes surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12 when the United States faced Paraguay in the FIFA World Cup, eclipsing the $1.4 billion recorded during last season’s Super Bowl. Bernstein attributes the spike to Robinhood’s partnership with Rothera, a CFTC‑licensed exchange that launched on May 28 and has already cleared about 200 million contracts in its first 18 days. The bulk of that activity stems from World Cup and Major League Baseball contracts, underscoring the platform’s appeal to investors seeking real‑time sports betting on a blockchain‑enabled market.
Market Implications
Robinhood’s expansive retail user base, combined with a flat $0.01 commission per contract and fee discounts that can reach 50 %, strengthens its competitive stance in the crypto prediction‑market arena. Analysts suggest that the low‑cost structure and robust distribution network will attract additional investors, potentially expanding the platform’s market share as more events migrate to blockchain‑based wagering. Continued growth in daily volumes could further solidify Robinhood’s position as a leading venue for crypto‑linked prediction trading.