South American nation imposes ban on two leading betting platforms in sweeping regulatory move

In a significant escalation of its regulatory efforts, Brazil has taken steps to restrict access to a total of 27 prediction market platforms, including prominent players Kalshi and Polymarket, deeming their operations akin to unauthorized wagering. As of Friday afternoon, the websites of these two major platforms were no longer accessible in Brazil, following a crackdown led by the country's telecom regulator, Anatel, at the behest of Finance Minister Dario Durigan.

This development comes on the heels of a recent ruling by the National Monetary Council, which imposed strict limitations on the scope of permissible derivatives, confining them to economically relevant indicators such as inflation rates, interest rates, and currency exchange rates. Conversely, the new framework explicitly excludes contracts related to sports, esports, political events, elections, cultural happenings, and social phenomena, thereby rendering them ineligible for inclusion in the authorized derivatives landscape.

According to a detailed analysis published by Brazil's Finance Ministry, prediction markets function by facilitating the trading of binary event contracts, wherein users assume a yes or no stance on the potential outcomes of future events. The ministry's assessment highlights that platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, which are globally recognized, exhibit structural similarities with fixed-odds betting operations, despite being marketed as financial instruments.

Regis Dudena, Secretary for Economic Reforms, emphasized that while prediction markets are often presented as legitimate financial products, they bear a striking resemblance to traditional betting in practice. Meanwhile, Miriam Belchior, Chief of Staff to the President, underscored the government's determination to prevent the proliferation of an unregulated betting market, which could potentially undermine the country's existing regulatory framework.

Brazil's decisive stance on this matter assumes added significance in the context of the ongoing global debate surrounding the classification and regulation of prediction markets. Notably, the country's regulated online betting sector, which was launched in January 2025, is currently restricted to fixed-odds betting tied to real-world sports events and online games, leaving a significant gray area regarding the legality of betting on political, cultural, and other events.