XRP Has Entered a Bull Phase Each Time This Signal Fired
$XRP may be on the verge of repeating a recurring pattern since 2020 that could signal another cycle low before a major breakout.
Market analyst Chart Nerd notes that $XRP’s structure bears similarities to past cycles, where drops to a long-term support trendline have triggered strong rallies. He expects a possible dip below $1 before a potential surge toward $27 if the pattern repeats.
Key Points
Chart Nerd identifies a repeating cycle since 2020 where $XRP surges after touching an ascending support trendline.
Previous cycles saw $XRP drop to $0.11 in 2020 and $0.30 in 2022/2023 before major rallies.
$XRP lost the bull market support band in October 2025, turning it into resistance and confirming the ongoing downtrend.
Short-term rallies toward $1.60-$2 remain possible but could still lead to deeper corrections below $1.
Long-term outlook suggests a potential breakout to $27 once $XRP forms a new cycle low and recovers.
$XRP Enters Bull Phase After Trendline Retest
In his latest market exposition, Chart Nerd analyzed $XRP across multiple timeframes, including the monthly, weekly, and daily charts, to build a broader view of its current structure.
He referenced the cycle top of $3.6 recorded in July 2025 and compared it with previous market cycles. According to him, $XRP has consistently respected an ascending support trendline since 2020, which has acted as a critical foundation during corrections.
He noted that each major cycle peak has led to a corrective phase that eventually brought the price back to this trendline. $XRP previously reached $3.31 in 2018, followed by a lower high of $1.96 in 2021 due to legal pressures, and then climbed again to $3.6 in 2025.
Each time, the asset returned to the ascending support line, forming a cycle low, before it reached the next peak. In March 2020, $XRP dropped to $0.11 to retest the trendline during a liquidation event, formed a double bottom, consolidated, and then rallied to the $1.96 high in April 2021.
$XRP Blue Ascending Support Trendline | Chart Nerd
A similar structure emerged between 2021 and 2024, when $XRP formed a double bottom at $0.30 in June 2022 and January 2023 before breaking out and retesting the trendline again in July. After this, it proceeded to rally to the latest peak of $3.6 in July 2025.
$XRP Remains in a Downtrend
Chart Nerd stressed that the current market remains in a corrective phase despite recent gains. He explained that $XRP trades within a falling channel and may still revisit the ascending support line, which currently projects a potential bottom between $0.70 and $0.90.
On the weekly chart, he stated the importance of the bull market support band, consisting of the 20 SMA (red line) and the 21 EMA (blue line). $XRP lost this support band in October 2025 and flipped it into resistance.
Since then, every attempt to reclaim it has resulted in rejection. $XRP rallied to $2.69 in late October 2025 and $2.41 in early January 2026, but both moves failed, leading to further declines, including a drop to $1.10 in early February 2026, which marked a 50% correction.
$XRP Below Bull Market Support Band
Currently, $XRP trades within a tight range between $1.30 and $1.50, showing signs of compression. Chart Nerd suggested that a short-term rally toward $1.60 to $1.70, or even $1.80 to $2, could occur. However, he warned that as long as $XRP remains below the resistance band, the broader downtrend remains intact.
Repeating Cycles Point to Potential Breakout
Meanwhile, historical patterns indicate that $XRP typically spends extended periods below the support band before reclaiming it and triggering explosive rallies.
Chart Nerd called attention to similar trends in 2017 and 2020, where reclaiming the band led to impressive upward moves. In contrast, losing the band has consistently marked the start of deeper bear markets, as seen in 2021 and 2022.
He also observed that $XRP often forms a temporary base after a peak, holds support briefly, and then breaks down further to establish a final cycle low. This pattern appeared in 2019/2020 and again in 2022, and he believes the current structure mirrors those phases.
$XRP has already lost its ascending support, and if it rallies into resistance near $1.82, it could still face rejection before dropping to retest the long-term ascending trendline around $0.70 to $0.90.
On lower timeframes, $XRP is forming a compression pattern between descending resistance and ascending support, with an apex expected around early May. Holding above $1.38 and key moving averages could trigger a breakout toward $1.60 or $2, while a breakdown could accelerate the move toward the projected cycle low.
$XRP Eyes Long-Term Target of $27
Despite the short-term bearish outlook, Chart Nerd remains bullish on $XRP’s long-term trajectory. He stressed that the current phase was part of a multi-year accumulation structure forming beneath a major resistance level that has persisted for nearly eight years.
The market analyst pointed out similarities between the current trend and the period between 2013 and 2017, when $XRP broke a long-standing resistance and entered a euphoric rally.
According to him, once $XRP breaks above its $3.6 all-time high, it could enter price discovery and deliver explosive gains. Using Fibonacci projections, he identified a long-term target of $27, suggesting that the same signal that triggered previous bull runs could soon activate again once $XRP forms a new cycle low and retests the ascending support trendline.