Dogecoin whale sits on a $3.87mln loss – Will DOGE’s $0.10 support survive?

With $DOGE reclaiming $0.1 and holding above this price level for four consecutive days, some long-term holders have re-strategized.

One Dogecoin long-term holder with three addresses had withdrawn 14.06 million $DOGE worth approximately $5.37 million. The whale purchased these tokens at an average price of $0.382.

After a year of dormancy, the holder transferred all these tokens to new addresses, according to data from Arkham.

Over this period, as $DOGE dropped by 71% from the buying price, the value of these tokens fell to $1.5 million, resulting in over $3.87 million in losses.

Source: Arkham

Although these tokens moved, the whale has yet to sell them. If sold, the whale will realize significant losses.

At the same time, selling amid this period of market weakness could derail recent gains and potentially drive $DOGE below $0.1 again.

Dogecoin demand still remains weak, with profit-taking rising

Interestingly, with Dogecoin [$DOGE] seeing some stability around $0.1, it seems most participants are not fully convinced of extended gains.

As a result, sell-side activity on the spot market has risen substantially. In fact, the memecoin recorded increased sell volume across major exchanges over the past 24 hours.

Source: Coinalyze

Binance leads in selling activity, with volume hitting 524 million compared to 455 million in buying volume. This leaves the market with a negative delta of 69 million, suggesting clear seller dominance in the spot market.

Furthermore, exchange activity also echoed this sell-side activity. Since $DOGE reclaimed $0.1 days ago, sellers have remained active on exchanges.

According to Coinglass data, the memecoin recorded $737.9 million in Spot inflows over the last five days, while Outflows dropped to $721.7 million.

Source: CoinGlass

As a result, the Spot Netflow has remained positive over this period. On five day timeframe, the Netflow rose to $16.17 million. On daily charts, the flow remains the same, with Netflow holding around $792k.

Historically, increased sell-side activity has weakened the market, causing prices to decline if demand fails to keep pace.

Can $DOGE bulls repel bearishness and hold $0.1?

Although sellers have shown great determination to cash out, the momentum remains bullish, suggesting bulls are absorbing pressure.

In fact, the memecoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits around 70, while its signal line holds at 61. The setup suggests buyers still have an upper hand in the market.

Source: TradingView

Likewise, Dogecoin’s DMI ADX Smoothing positive index is 33, while the negative index is around 6. Also, ADX sits above ADXR, further confirming the strength of the trend.

Therefore, these two momentum indicators signal a likely continuation of the trend. If $0.1 holds, the Dogecoin could reclaim $0.11 and eye a move towards $0.12.

However, sellers are increasingly active, and if the whale recently observed decides to exit, further pressure will strain the market. In doing so, $DOGE will lose $0.1 support and drop to $0.096.

Final Summary

$DOGE has held above $0.10 for four straight days, but whale activity still adds pressure around this support zone.

Dogecoin needs to defend $0.10 to keep the $0.11 to $0.12 recovery path open.