Why is Bitcoin’s Bull Run Delayed in 2026? Grok, Claude, Gemini, ChatGPT, and Perplexity Explained

Bitcoin’s rally in 2026 has not gone as many investors expected. After hitting a record high of $126,000 in October 2025, $BTC has now fallen below $82,000, leaving traders wondering why the expected mega bull run never arrived.

Many believed 2026 would become Bitcoin’s biggest year yet. Due to a crypto-friendly U.S. president, spot Bitcoin ETFs, post-halving momentum, and rising institutional adoption, strong bullish expectations had developed. But instead of entering a massive breakout phase, Bitcoin has spent most of 2026 struggling to stay above $70,000.So, we’ve asked the leading AI models, including ChatGPT, Grok, Claude, Gemini, and Perplexity, why this bull run is delayed. Here’s what they say it.

What Leading AI Models Are Saying – Why Bull Run is Delayed

Leading AI models like ChatGPT, Grok, Claude, Gemini, and Perplexity believe Bitcoin’s bull run is delayed for multiple reasons.

ChatGPT: Global Liquidity Is Still Weak

ChatGPT says the biggest reason behind Bitcoin’s slow movement is weak global liquidity. Usually, Bitcoin performs best when central banks cut interest rates and add more money into the financial system.

But in 2026, rising oil prices, inflation fears, and Middle East tensions are making the U.S. Federal Reserve more careful about rate cuts.

According to ChatGPT, Bitcoin ETFs are still buying $BTC steadily, but the buying pressure is not strong enough yet to create a major supply shock above $90,000.

Grok: Fear and Weak Market Excitement

Grok believes traders are tired after several fake breakouts over the past few months. Meme coin hype has also cooled down, while overall trading activity remains weaker compared to previous bull cycles.

The AI model says geopolitical tensions, especially Iran-related headlines, continue to hurt market momentum.

Still, Grok believes Bitcoin’s long-term bullish structure remains intact. According to its analysis, the post-halving cycle is still active, but the major rally may shift to Q3 or Q4 of 2026 if global tensions begin to ease.

Claude: Investors Want More Economic Clarity

Claude says the crypto market is currently stuck in a phase of macro uncertainty. Large institutional investors still want Bitcoin exposure, but they are waiting for clearer economic conditions before investing heavily again.

Claude highlights several major concerns:

U.S.-Iran tensions

Rising oil prices

Delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts

Weak global economic confidence

Gemini: Bitcoin Is Trading Like a Tech Stock

Gemini says Bitcoin is currently behaving more like a technology stock than digital gold. This means $BTC is reacting to the same fears affecting the stock market, including recession worries, inflation concerns, and war risks.

According to Gemini, Bitcoin has strong support between $75,000 and $78,000. However, a clean breakout above $85,000 is needed to restart stronger bullish momentum.

Perplexity: Global Events Now Control Crypto Markets

Perplexity says Bitcoin is now deeply connected to traditional finance and global politics.

The AI model explains the cycle like this:

Oil price shocks increase inflation

Inflation affects Federal Reserve policy

Fed policy impacts market liquidity

Liquidity directly affects Bitcoin demand

Because of this chain reaction, every major U.S.-Iran headline is now influencing crypto prices.

CoinEdition View – Why Bitcoin’s Bull Run Is Delayed

Apart from the AI model, Coinedition team of experts believes that the biggest reason behind Bitcoin’s slow rally in 2026 is the growing U.S.-Iran conflict. Rising war fears pushed oil prices higher, increased inflation concerns, and reduced hopes for Fed rate cuts, all of which hurt Bitcoin and other risk assets.

After the U.S. launched strikes on Iran, Bitcoin dropped nearly 8.5% in just hours. Oil prices also jumped above $106 as markets feared a Strait of Hormuz blockade.At the same time, the U.S. crypto market structure bill, known as the Clarity Act, is still waiting for approval, keeping regulatory uncertainty high for institutional investors.

However, historical data shows that Q2 and Q3 have often been some of Bitcoin’s strongest-performing quarters.

Based on previous market cycles, the CoinEdition team believes the next few months could become a very important period for the crypto market.

Related: CME Gap Fuels Fresh Bitcoin Push Toward $93K Target