比特币的下一个大考验可能决定整体回调

比特币位于两个重要的图表信号之间，两者都指向交易者不能忽视的支撑区域。 One chart shows buyers defending the $67,000 area now, while the other suggests the market may still dip toward $57,000 to $58,000 before a stronger move begins.

比特币在 CME AVWAP 集群获得关键支持

The chart shared by Cantonese Cat suggests Bitcoin CME futures are testing an important support cluster near $67,000, where several technical signals now meet. On the monthly chart, price sits close to an anchored VWAP from the last cycle bottom, another anchored VWAP from the last cycle top, and a visible volume shelf on the right side of the chart. When several support markers line up in one area, traders usually treat that zone as more important than a single trend line or moving average.

Bitcoin CME Futures AVWAP Support and Volume Shelf.来源：粤猫

That is the main point behind the post’s argument. The chart implies Bitcoin may find it harder to break sharply lower because this area already holds a large amount of previous trading activity. In other words, the market is not falling into empty space. Instead, it is pulling back into a zone where buyers and sellers have done a lot of business before.

The black line, marked as the AVWAP from the last cycle bottom, runs almost directly through the current price region. The blue line, marked as the AVWAP from the last cycle top, sits slightly below it.这创造了一个分层的支持结构，而不是单一的价格下限。与此同时，成交量分布显示同一区域周围活动活跃，这强化了该区域可能吸引需求的想法。

尽管如此，支撑并不能保证反弹。它仅表明当前区域很重要。如果比特币保持在该区域上方，则图表支持近期跌势可能放缓并稳定的观点。 However, if price loses this support cluster with strength, then the next move lower could open more downside pressure because the market would be falling through an area that many traders expected to hold.

比特币面临接近 5.7 万美元支撑位的关键月度测试

The chart shared by Super฿ro suggests Bitcoin may need one more drop toward its primary monthly uptrend before a stronger recovery can begin. On the monthly timeframe, $BTC is trading near $67,269 after rejecting at an internal dotted trendline. The chart also shows the 50 month simple moving average near $58,117 and the lower Bollinger Band near $57,008, placing both support markers in the same area.

Bitcoin Monthly Support Test at 50 SMA and Lower Bollinger Band.来源：Super฿ro

That overlap matters because traders often treat clustered indicators as stronger support than a single line alone. Here, the chart argues that Bitcoin could move down toward the $57,000 to $58,000 zone to test the untouched primary uptrend, the 50 SMA, and the lower Bollinger Band at the same time. In other words, the setup points to a deeper retest, not necessarily a full trend breakdown.

RSI 进一步证实了这一观点。 The lower panel shows the monthly RSI at 43.89, which is below the 45 level marked several times on the chart. The note on the image says Bitcoin has historically seen a maximum 25% drawdown once RSI closes below 45. That does not guarantee the same move now, but it helps explain why the chart author sees room for another leg lower before support becomes stronger.

与此同时，更大的结构仍然很重要。 The solid yellow primary uptrend line remains intact, while the recent drop has pushed price into a compression zone around major long term support.因此，该图表的信息并不完全看跌。 Instead, it suggests Bitcoin may first flush lower, shake out weaker holders, and then try to rebuild from a stronger base.

If $BTC closes back above that support cluster after a wick lower, the chart would support a recovery case.如果它果断地失去这个区域，那么下行情景将变得更加严重。 So the main takeaway is clear: Bitcoin is approaching a major monthly support area near $57,000 to $58,000, and that zone could decide whether this pullback ends as a reset or turns into a deeper decline.