分析师：比特币复苏脆弱，伊朗战争余波将在 2026 年“主导”市场

Now almost a week old, the Bitcoin ($BTC) recovery is “fragile” as the crypto market faces geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds from the ongoing war in the Middle East, according to Nic Puckrin, a crypto market analyst and founder of the CoinBureau media outlet.

“Even if the war ends now, its repercussions will likely be the story of 2026, and certainly the dominant narrative for Q2. I don’t expect to see a rate cut until late Q3 or Q4, if at all,” Puckrin told Cointelegraph.他说他看到：

“For a push toward $90,000, we would need to see a combination of factors: a ceasefire that results in the end of geopolitical tensions, a sustained drop in oil prices toward $80, and ideally also softer-than-expected economic data that calms stagflation fears.”

他表示，如果比特币本周收于 71,000 美元上方，则可能预示着 BTC 继续上涨，阻力位在 74,000 美元附近形成。根据 TradingView 的数据，最新交易价格约为 71,276 美元。

BTC 面临 74,000 美元水平的阻力，并继续低于 200 天指数移动平均线。来源：TradingView

The ongoing conflict has caused an inflationary spike, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index report, published on Friday, chilling hopes of further interest rate cuts in 2026. Rate cuts or credit easing tend to stimulate asset prices.

相关：分析师：比特币、以太币接近可能预示趋势逆转的水平

由于伊朗谈判失败和美国总统威胁局势大幅升级，比特币陷入困境

Bitcoin surged by about 5.8% beginning on April 6, reaching above $73,000, before retracing to about $71,000 on April 11, following news of failed negotiations between the US and Iran, according to the Kobeissi Letter.

“Peace talks appear to have come to a screeching halt,” Kobeissi Letter said, adding, “the outcome of talks was arguably the worst-case scenario.”

Following the failed peace talks, US President Donald Trump said he directed the US military to form a naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz.

“I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in international waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas,” Trump said on Saturday.

资料来源：唐纳德·特朗普

Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which decides interest rate policy in the US, remain divided on further interest rate cuts in 2026, citing inflation concerns from the war.

The FOMC did not rule out an interest rate hike in 2026 if inflation remains elevated above its 2% target, according to the meeting minutes from the March FOMC meeting.

According to the CME Fedwatch tool, there is more than a 98% probability of the FOMC maintaining the current target rate range of 350-375 basis points at the next two meetings, on April 29 and June 17. Chances drop to about 65% for the July 29 meeting, with a 33.6% probability of a 25-bps cut.

杂志：大问题：比特币能否将您从可怕的坎蒂隆效应中拯救出来？