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At the time of writing, Bitcoin [$BTC] active investors’ mean price was $85K, with the short-term holder cost basis at $78.9K. The cryptocurrency itself was valued at $77.8K, rising after its recent retracement to $74.9K on 29 April.

In a post on X, Glassnode had listed the mean price numbers above, and also that the true market mean was at $78K. This meant that there was a threat of profit-taking from holders as the price inched closer towards $80K once again.

The realized price of the network, which refers to the average cost basis of all Bitcoin holders, was a long way south at $54.1K.

Bitcoin dipped below the realized cost during the previous bear market.而且，这个周期也可能会这样做。

Short-term $BTC holders are profitable once again

来源：CryptoQuant

For the first time since October, the 30-day moving average of the short-term holder spent output profit loss (STH SOPR) has turned positive. In other words, Bitcoin’s short-term holders are returning to break-even or a slight profit, on average.

Crypto analyst Darkfost highlighted how the STH SOPR above 1 meant it may be possible the market had reached a turning point.通常，当指标接近盈利能力时，短期持有者会出售所持股份并寻求退出市场，表现出缺乏信心。

This happened previously in April 2022, marking the end of a dead cat bounce from $36K to $47K.

尽管市场仍保持平静且大规模抛售尚未开始，但类似的情况可能会再次出现。

“危险的”比特币分歧

来源：CryptoQuant

Analyst Moreno DV pointed to the divergence between the price, funding rates, and taker buy volume. While the price has set higher lows since February, the funding rate has remained largely flat.

最引人注目的部分似乎是接受者购买量的下降。由于是接受者或激进的市场买家/卖家推动价格，接受者购买量的下降趋势表明追逐比特币价格上涨的市场参与者较少。

This meant that the market could be undergoing a phase of accumulation, with large market players absorbing the supply through limit orders.

另外，接受者购买量的下降意味着上涨反映了缺乏强劲卖家，而不是大量买家的存在，从而使得走势变得脆弱。

最终总结

Bitcoin’s rally faces a handful of cost basis obstacles from $78K to $85K, giving holders an incentive to sell.

Rallies driven by a lack of sellers instead of the presence of sustained, aggressive buyers are structurally weaker.