低交易量牛市陷阱使比特币跌破 80,000 美元

Bitcoin is having trouble clearing $80,000 because the rally is not being carried by strong spot buying. Right now, prices are barely holding onto $79,000, which may look stable on the screen, but the market under it is thin.

The main warning is simple: futures are doing almost all the work. Across the top six premium exchanges, derivatives now make up 87.77% of activity.这使得比特币处于一个高杠杆区域，一次糟糕的同花顺可能很快就会让平静的价格走势变得一团糟。

The total notional volume is about $9.73 billion, but real spot demand has almost disappeared. Binance, which is not publicly traded, holds 87.22% of total liquidity. Deribit 也是私有的，它并没有表现出那种强劲的对冲流量，而这会导致更大的机构头寸。这种设置看起来更像是散户交易者通过债务、保证金和希望来维持比特币的活力。

由于实际现货需求枯竭，衍生品交易员将比特币维持在 79,000 美元附近

On April 30, CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno warned in his weekly report that the run toward $79,000 was powered by derivatives while spot demand was falling.

Julio 的前三点与 87.77% 的期货主导读数相匹配，这意味着反弹并非建立在广泛的现金购买之上。 The same kind of split appeared before the 2022 crash.

资料来源：CryptoQuant。

CryptoQuant 牛市评分也从 50 跌至 40，低于中性并回到看跌区域。 That drop came after the futures-led price action weakened the wider market picture.

Apparent demand remained negative throughout the full April rise, so the price gain lacked firm support from real buyers.这就是牛市陷阱问题。 The price can climb, but the floor under it is not strong.

日线图又增加了一个警告。 After Bitcoin broke above its bullish channel, it formed a Shooting Star candle.当买家推高价格，然后卖家在交易结束前将价格回落时，通常会出现这种模式。

价格目前位于旧的阻力区域，该区域已转变为支撑，但该支撑并不令人信服。 Real volume came in at 15.78K $BTC, above the 20-day average of 13.87K $BTC, yet selling pressure still won that round.

Short-term pressure is also building above the market.价格动力下降 3.5%，净购买压力下降 28.6%，交易活动下滑 13.3%。卖家较为活跃，但成交量较弱。这表明投资者的参与度较低，并使比特币陷入震荡区域，整合风险上升。

资料来源：Glassnode。

期权交易者也更加关注下行风险。 25-delta 偏差上升 6.75%，而期权未平仓合约下降 9.98%。波动性利差跃升 173.4%，这意味着市场定价的预期风险远高于实际交易中已经看到的风险。

Short-term Bitcoin holders send most exchange inflows as ETF demand weakens

华尔街男孩也没有彻底拯救比特币。 US spot Bitcoin ETF MVRV points to possible profit-taking. ETF产品净流出7.834亿美元，交易量下降13.45%。这表明机构需求疲软，并增加了横盘交易或另一次测试走低的风险。

链上活动好坏参半。每日活跃地址增加了 6.4%，因此活跃的钱包数量有所增加。但实体调整后的转让量下降了7.4%，这意味着较大的交易活动降温。

The LTH/STH SOPR ratio bottomed near 0.99 on April 24 and April 25, meaning long-term holders and short-term holders were barely breaking even at that point.随后攀升至 1.097，表明长期持有者以比短期持有者更好的利润水平消费代币。

抛售压力主要来自新买家。交易所流入数据显示，发送到交易所的代币中有 97.2% 来自短期持有者地址。拥有 1 至 1,000 美元 BTC 的中型持有者（通常被称为鱼和鲨鱼）推动了约 58% 的资金流入。

较小的养殖者，即虾和蟹，占 18.5%。 4 月 24 日，单日流入量达到 35,649 美元 BTC。到 5 月 3 日，比特币价格已跌至 3,895 美元。

短期持有者平均仅下跌2.17%，且损失一直在缩小，而长期持有者仍上涨27%。 New buyers have also crossed back into profit, while market sentiment returned to “Optimism / Recovery” for the first time in weeks.